Democratic state senator 42% to 39% in the hotly contested race.
With its margin of error of 4%, the poll places the contenders in a
statistical dead heat. Rogan campaign manager Jason Roe acknowledged the
poll could tip either way.
"We could be up by 7 or down by 1," Roe said.
The poll was conducted by New York-based media firm Dresner, Wickers
and Associates. The firm contacted 400 voters on Aug. 13 and 14 and asked
which candidate they would support. Roe would not release a questionnaire
and did not say what questions were asked.
Dresner contacted only registered voters in the district, Roe said. At
the time of the March primary, there were 298,390 voters on the rolls.
Dresner skewed the polling to capture a representative sample, Roe said.
District voters breaks down into 45% Democratic, 38% Republican and 17%
who don't belong to either major party.
Schiff campaign consultant Parke Skelton said the poll would not help
Rogan's cause, since it showed the incumbent with only a narrow edge over
Schiff, who currently holds the 21st state Senate District seat.
"Those are terrible numbers for an incumbent," Skelton said. "I would
not release numbers like that unless I felt the popular perception was
that I was going to lose two (votes) to one."
Skelton said the Schiff camp conducted a poll earlier in the month
that showed him leading Rogan 45% to 40% in the race. That poll was
conducted by Washington D.C. pollster The Feldman Group, Skelton said.
The Feldman Group interviewed 500 district voters on Aug. 7 and 8.
That poll had a 2.6% margin for error.