Political Landscape:

A 2006 law mandating strict regulations on carbon emissions to reduce the state’s effects on global climate change could have adverse short-term effects on employment, California’s legislative analyst said in a letter Monday.

Although the effects of Assembly Bill 32 on jobs are difficult to gauge, “we believe that the aggregate net jobs impact in the near term is likely to be negative, even after recognizing that many of the [California Air Resources Board’s regulatory] programs phase in over time,” Mac Taylor, the state’s legislative analyst, said in the letter.

The letter was in response to inquiries from state Sen. Dave Cogdill (R-Modesto), who, along with other Republicans, have called for a suspension of any new regulations until California’s jobless rate drops significantly.

State Sen. Bob Huff (R-Diamond Bar) has argued that the bill’s requirements should be suspended to protect businesses from the added expenses required to meet stricter emissions standards.

Unnecessary expenses could prevent new jobs and growth in the private sector and perhaps push businesses out of California, Huff said, citing the legislative analyst’s letter.

Huff questioned how well California could effect global climate change when nations have yet to come to an agreement on how to lower emissions, arguing that the economic risks were unwarranted, particularly when doubts about global warming have persisted.

“The science of it is not settled,” Huff said.

He has introduced a bill that would prevent some emissions-related regulations from taking effect without first being considered by the Legislature.

The bill would also prevent new restrictions from the California Energy Commission from going into effect until the unemployment rate falls below 5.1% for three consecutive months.

California’s unemployment rate was 12.5% in January.

But while the short-term employment impacts of AB 32 may be negative, the requirements for more power to be obtained from renewable sources and the demand for industry growth because of the regulations will likely create 120,000 jobs by 2020, according to the legislative analyst.

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